Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens meet in the US Open Round of 32 on Saturday, September 5, 2026, at 23:00 UTC. Osaka is the sound favourite; the useful question is whether she can win by five games.
Power first, patience second
Osaka beat world No. 42 Katerina Siniakova 6-2 5-7 6-1, but only after losing control of the second set. Her serve and first groundstroke remain the match’s largest weapons, as the recent 6-1 6-2 win over Mertens in Toronto demonstrated rather plainly.
Mertens reached this round without dropping a set, most recently beating Maria Timofeeva 6-2 7-6(5). She became conservative before recovering in that tiebreak, a useful example of the composure that can preserve a handicap even when Osaka takes command.
Four and a half games leave useful room
Mertens does not need to solve Osaka outright. She needs to attack the second serve, vary her own placement and keep Osaka moving long enough for the favourite’s recent closing problems to enter the match.
Heavy legs after Monterrey are the clear concern, and another Toronto-style rout would beat the line. Yet Osaka has surrendered substantial leads in both New York rounds, while Mertens has repeatedly recovered from poor positions; 4.5 games gives that pattern adequate room.
Prediction: Elise Mertens +4.5 games, odds 1.78
